Monthly Decision Maker Panel data - June 2025

The June DMP survey was conducted between 6 and 20 June and received 2,129 responses.

Firms reported that their realised own-price growth remained unchanged at an average annual rate of 3.5% in the three months to June. Note that the DMP covers own prices from firms across the whole economy, not just consumer-facing firms.

In the three months to June, firms reported that their year-ahead own-price inflation was expected to be 3.6%, 0.1 percentage points lower than they had reported in the three months to May, suggesting therefore that they expected output price inflation to increase by 0.1 percentage points over the next year.

Expectations for year-ahead CPI inflation fell 0.1 percentage points to 3.1% in the three months to June, although there was an increase of 0.3 percentage points in the single month data. The corresponding measure for three-years ahead CPI inflation expectations was 2.8% in the three months to June, which has been unchanged since the three months to January. 

Firms reported that annual wage growth was 4.6% in the three months to June, 0.1 percentage points lower than in the three months to May. Expected year-ahead wage growth fell in June by 0.1 percentage points to 3.6% on a three-month moving-average basis. The single month figure remained flat at 3.6%, after rising 0.1 percentage points in May. Firms expected their wage growth to decline by 1 percentage point over the next 12 months, based on three-month averages.

Firms were asked about the potential impacts that recent changes to US trade policy would have on their sales, prices and investment over the next year. Across all questions on sales, prices and investment, over two-thirds of firms reported that changes to US trade policy would have no material impact on their firms. In June, 29% of firms expected sales to be lower in the year ahead as a result of US trade policy changes and 24% of firms expected that their capital expenditures would be lower. On prices, 19% of firms expected that their average prices would be lower, while 12% expected that their prices would be higher as a result of the tariff changes. 

Firms were also asked about US trade policy as a source of uncertainty for their businesses. US trade policy was reported to be one of the top three sources of uncertainty for 14% of businesses, a 2 percentage point increase from May, but still lower than in April. Overall uncertainty remained flat in the three months to June, with 56% of firms reporting that the overall level of uncertainty facing their business was high or very high.